Why open rates stopped working#
Open tracking relies on a tiny image in the email: when it loads, the email counts as opened. When Apple Mail's Protect Mail Activity is on, Mail downloads remote content in the background regardless of whether the recipient engages with the email, and routes it through relays that hide the reader's IP address. Those emails can show as opened even if nobody read them.
Other mail clients block images by default, which pushes the number the other way. Company security filters also fetch links to scan them, which inflates click counts. An open rate today mixes all of that together.
The metrics that matter#
| Metric | How to calculate | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Bounce rate | Bounced ÷ sent | List quality; high numbers damage your domain |
| Reply rate | Replied ÷ delivered | Whether the email was relevant enough to answer |
| Positive reply rate | Interested replies ÷ delivered | Whether your targeting and offer are right |
| Meeting rate | Meetings booked ÷ delivered | Whether replies turn into real conversations |
| Opt-out rate | Opt-outs ÷ delivered | Whether you're writing to the wrong people |
| Spam complaint rate | Complaints ÷ delivered (Postmaster Tools for Gmail) | Deliverability risk; Gmail and Yahoo expect below 0.3% |
Count per first email, not per message, so follow-ups don't double the denominator.
Read the numbers in order#
- Bounces first: if more than a few per hundred bounce, fix the list before anything else.
- Then complaints and opt-outs: rising numbers mean targeting or frequency is wrong.
- Then reply rate: low replies with clean delivery usually mean the observation or the offer isn't specific enough.
- Then positive replies and meetings: many replies but few meetings means the ask or the follow-up needs work.
About benchmarks#
Published cold email benchmarks come from different tools, sectors, list sources and definitions, often counting opens. They can't tell you whether 3% or 10% replies is good for a dental-software company writing to clinics in one city. Track your own numbers per campaign and per observation type, and compare against last month.
Getting a fair reading from small numbers#
If you send 200 first emails a month, two extra replies move your reply rate by a whole percentage point. Change one thing at a time, keep it running for several weeks and look at the trend, not a single day.
- Count every reply, including “not now” and “no”
- Tag replies as positive, later, not interested or opt-out
- Record which observation type and subject line each email used
- Compare campaigns over the same number of weeks
FAQ
Are email open rates still accurate?
No. Apple Mail Privacy Protection can register emails as opened without anyone reading them, and image blocking hides real opens. Use replies and meetings instead.
What is a good reply rate for cold email?
It varies too much by sector, list source and offer for a single number to be useful. Track your own reply rate per campaign and aim to improve it month by month.
How do I calculate reply rate?
Divide the number of prospects who replied by the number of first emails delivered, leaving out bounces. Count each prospect once, however many follow-ups they received.
What bounce rate is too high for cold email?
More than two or three bounces per hundred emails means the list needs cleaning before you send more.
Should I track clicks in cold emails?
Usually not. Tracked links can hurt deliverability, and security scanners click links automatically, so click counts are unreliable.
Sources
- Mail Privacy Protection & Privacy · Apple
- Use Mail Privacy Protection on iPhone · Apple Support
- Email sender guidelines · Google
- Set up Postmaster Tools · Google